Overview

Overview

Section 380.0552(9)(a)2., Florida Statutes, requires that the local governments within the Florida Keys Area of Critical State Concern establish goals, objectives, and policies that “protect public safety and welfare in the event of a natural disaster by maintaining a hurricane evacuation clearance time for permanent residents of no more than 24 hours.” 

FloridaCommerce, in its capacity as the state land planning agency, assists the local governments in meeting this statutory requirement by updating the data for the Florida Keys Evacuation Model as professionally acceptable sources of information are released pursuant to Administration Commission rules. With new census information recently available and the close of a 10-year planning horizon initiated in 2013 and ending in 2023, FloridaCommerce has conducted new baseline modeling and data gathering. 

Please see below a link to view and/or download the Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Modeling Report which contains a summary of FloridaCommerce’s 2023 Hurricane Evacuation Modeling, as well as a history of managed growth in the Florida Keys and an overview of the robust community engagement and public input coordinated by FloridaCommerce to support the 2023 modeling efforts. This report includes research to help inform future policy decisions that may be considered by state and local officials to ensure the continued safety and well-being of Florida Keys residents.

• Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Modeling Report

Should you have any questions, please email us at FLKeysEvac@Commerce.fl.gov. 

Webinars

Florida Keys hurricane evacuation modeling protects Florida Keys’ residents and visitors, ensuring they are able to safely evacuate before a storm. This effort is in response to the unique needs of local governments in the Florida Keys – unlike anywhere else in the state – and is a collaborative effort between the state and local partners. 

FloridaCommerce provided two opportunities for local governments and citizens to attend the Florida Keys Evacuation Modeling webinars to discuss the 2023 Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Modeling process and draft results of the modeling.

The Florida Keys Evacuation Modeling Webinar #1 was held on Tuesday, November 14, 2023, from 3:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m., Eastern Time.

• Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Modeling Slide Deck 

The Florida Keys Evacuation Modeling Webinar #2 was held on Thursday, November 16, 2023, from 2:00 p.m. to 3:00 p.m., Eastern Time.

If you have questions relating to the Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Modeling that you would like us to address during the webinars, please email them in advance to the Bureau of Community Planning and Growth team at FLKeysEvac@Commerce.fl.gov. 

June Public Workshops

2023 Public Workshop Locations

Key West

• Date: Tuesday, June 13, 2023
• Time: 10 a.m. - 1 p.m.
• Location: Harvey Government Center - 2nd Floor, 1200 Truman Avenue, Key West, FL 33040
• Florida Administrative Register Notice

Marathon

• Date: Tuesday, June 13, 2023
• Time: 5 p.m. - 8 p.m.
• Location: Marathon Government Center - 2nd Floor, 2798 Overseas Highway, Marathon, FL 33050
• Florida Administrative Register Notice

Key Largo

• Date: Wednesday, June 14, 2023
• Time: 10 a.m. - 1 p.m.
• Location: Murray E. Nelson Government Center, 102050 Overseas Highway, Key Largo, FL 33037
• Florida Administrative Register Notice

Submit a Public Comment

Submit a Public Comment

Community members are encouraged to submit their comments via email to FLKeysEvac@Commerce.fl.gov or by mail to:

• FloridaCommerce
• Divison of Community Development
• Attention: BCPG
• The Caldwell Building
• 107 East Madison Street, MSC-400
• Tallahassee, FL 32399

Materials

Materials

• 2023 Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Modeling Toolkit
• Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Modeling Report

Past Workshops

2012 Hurricane Evacuation Modeling Workshop Information

Memorandum of Understanding

Part of the Legislative intent for the designation of the Florida Keys as an Area of Critical State Concern was to "ensure that the population of the Florida Keys can be safely evacuated" before a hurricane storm event. The state and local governments of the Florida Keys have had a long history regarding hurricane evacuation modeling in response to constraints faced by these local governments not seen anywhere else in the state. In 2011, the Governor and Cabinet, seated as the Administration Commission, directed FloridaCommerce and the Florida Division of Emergency Management to enter into a Memorandum of Understanding with Monroe County, the Village of Islamorada, and the Cities of Marathon, Key West, Key Colony Beach, and Layton regarding hurricane evacuation modeling.

The Memorandum of Understanding addresses the input variables and assumptions, including regional considerations, to depict hurricane evacuation clearance times for the population of the Florida Keys. The Memorandum of Understanding is the basis for an analysis of the maximum build-out capacity in the Florida Keys while maintaining the ability of the permanent population to evacuate within 24 hours. In order for the Memorandum of Understanding to be formulated, FloridaCommerce conducted a series of meetings for those chosen to represent their agencies and/or local governments on the 2012 Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work Group

• Florida Keys Hurricane Clearance Time Memorandum of Understanding

Agendas

• Summary of Agendas for 2012 Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work Group Meetings
• Hurricane Evacuation Work Group Agenda - Meeting 2 - February 27, 2012
• Hurricane Evacuation Work Group Agenda - Meeting 3 - April 30, 2012
• Hurricane Evacuation Work Group Agenda - Meeting 4 - June 8, 2012

Meeting Minutes

• Hurricane Evacuation Workshop Minutes - January 30, 2012
• Hurricane Evacuation Workshop Minutes - February 27, 2012
• Hurricane Evacuation Workshop Minutes - April 30, 2012
• Hurricane Evacuation Workshop Minutes - June 8, 2012

Materials Submitted by Work Group Members and FloridaCommerce Staff

• Questions Submitted by John Hammerstrom - April 6, 2012
• Revisions to MOU by John Hammerstrom - May 14, 2012
• Evacuation Work Group Comments by Annalise Mannix - May 22, 2012
• Scenario Summary by DEO Staff - June 8, 2012
• Updated Unit and Vehicle Information from Naval Air Station Key West by Ashley Monnier - June 7, 2012
• DEO Request for Additional Information from Naval Air Station Key West - June 12, 2012

Presentations

• Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Presentations

Background Materials

1. Table of Contents
2. Behavioral Information
3. Vehicle Usage Rates
4. Number of Vehicles per Evacuating Household
5. Maximum Probable Evacuation Rates
6. Excerpts from Section 163.3178, Coastal Management
7. Excerpts from Section 380.0552, Florida Keys Area; protection and designation as area of critical state concern
8. Table 18 - Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Study - Individual Improvements Scenario (Year 2005) Normal Response Curve and Hurricane Category 3-5
9. Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program - Monroe County - Dwelling Unit, Population and Vehicle Estimates and Projections
10. Actual Response Curves, from Volume 2-11 of the Statewide Regional Evacuation Studies Program for South Florida Region
11. Monroe County Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time - Final Report
12. Florida Keys Local Government Policies Related to Hurricane Evacuation
13. Glossary of Terms
14. Hurricane Evacuation Administrative Proceedings Findings of Fact and associated Local and State Government Policies
15. Behavioral Assumptions for Hurricane Evacuation Planning in Monroe County
16. Hurricane Memorandum of Understanding Tasks (Rule 28-20.140(5)(a), Florida Administrative Code)
17. Section 252.35, Florida Statutes - Emergency Management Powers; Division of Emergency Management
18. 2008 South Florida Behavioral Study Table, Section 3.7.3
19. Monroe County Dwelling Unit Estimates and Projections Table
20. Hurricane Model Assumption Comparisons
21. Regional Behavioral Analysis
22. Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Parameters Letter to the Division of Emergency Management 
23. Florida Department of Transporation Letter Regarding Revised Roadway Lanes  - October 28, 2010
24. Florida Department of Transporation Technical Memorandum for Florida Keys Site-Specific Capacity Study - April 21, 2010
25. Florida Department of Transporation Technical Memorandum for Maximum Sustainable Flow Rates - June 17, 2010
26. Monroe County Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time - Final Report - November 1, 2010
27. Emails for Hurricane Evacuation Update - November 2, 2010
28. Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Data Sheet - April 30, 2012

Florida Administrative Weekly Announcement

• Florida Administrative Weekly, Volume 38, Number 3, January 20, 2012 (see page 67)

Other Resources

• Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program (South Florida Region)
• National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification
• Proposed Methodology Update for Monroe County
• Methodology Appendix

Legal References

• Section 380.0552, Florida Statutes (see (2)(i) and (9)2.)
• Rule 28-18.400, Florida Administrative Code (see (5)(a))
• Rule 28-19.310, Florida Administrative Code (see (5)(a))
• Rule 28-20.140, Florida Administrative Code (see (5)(a))